Electric cars in 2014: Should I wait or should I buy?
Since we’re at an embryonic stage of electric
technology as a mass market transport solution, every year will hold surprises.
This year, however, looks to be the most intriguing and difficult to predict
yet.
Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW will join the
electric car race in 2014, which tells us quite a bit. These brands are not in
the habit of dropping dud models into the market, and, while there is an
element of toe-dipping in each company’s offering, each car is the result of a
multi-billion euro investment and, in some cases, the creation of an entirely
new brand. These companies recognize that electricity has a big part to
play in future personal mobility, or electro-mobility, and will start to wield
their considerable financial and R&D strength.
Recently established players like the
Nissan-Renault, Tesla and GM will need to keep innovating (and adopting
aggressive pricing strategies) to keep up.
We’ve already covered the new electric cars arriving in 2014, but what
else does this year hold for those who want smooth, quiet, zero emissions
transport on their driveway?
Will electric cars go further in 2014?
This year is unlikely to see notable
improvements in electric vehicle range, with most models continuing to hover
around 85 miles range. Even significant new cars such as the Volkswagen e-Golf, due late this year, will
likely manage only 90 miles range in the real world, although Mercedes insists
the B-Class Electric Drive is capable of more
than 110 miles.
At the top of the market Tesla will continue
to offer the Model S as well as introducing the Model X SUV. Both will be capable of more than
250 miles on a single charge, comfortably more than the opposition, but at a
price north of $70,000.
As battery technology remains uncomfortably
expensive, then, range anxiety will continue to hamper electric vehicle sales
in 2014, although some makers will overcome the problem by using range
extenders. BMW, for example, will offer the electric i3 with a small two-cylinder gasoline engine that
generates electricity to recharge the battery on the move. This doubles range,
but means your i3 is no longer purely electric while the damage is more than
$45,000. The Chevrolet Volt and luxury Cadillac ELR use similar technology
to boost range while powering the cars’ wheels solely by electricity.
Will electric cars cost less in 2014?
Depending on your taste, yes. Last year saw
significant price cuts on the Ford
Focus Electric and Nissan
LEAF, as well as discounted lease offers for the Chevrolet
Spark EV and the smart electric drive. While electric vehicle sales are
rising at an increasing rate, the trend is still slow enough that makers will
often use drastic offers to stimulate demand. Only last month Mitsubishi took $6,000 off the price of a new i-MiEV. Electric
car buyers will still receive a $7,500 federal tax credit and any state
incentives, too, so if you’re in the right place certain models can be had for
relatively little.
On the other hand, BMW, Mercedes and
Volkswagen will be entering the market with premium electric cars that will
command a suitably steep price tag. The BMW i3 and Mercedes B-Class Electric
Drive will both start at more than $40,000, while the Volkswagen eGolf won’t be
far behind. None of these cars go significantly further than cheaper rivals,
and buyers will be paying for a premium German brand rather than any improved
hardware.
This year may be a good time to pick up a
deal, but 2016 remains the most anticipated year in the young history of modern
electric cars, when both GM and Tesla could release cars with 200 miles range
for around $30,000.
Will electric car charging get any faster in
2014?
We won’t see any ground-breaking technology
become mainstream, no, but access to charging stations will continue to improve
dramatically. The number of public charging stations in the US grew by 30
percent in 2013, totaling around 6,800 (map here), and the next step will be to get
more workplace access for electric car owners.
Access to fast charging stations will improve
too, and Nissan is currently in the process of installing more than 500 DC fast
chargers in the US (there were around 150 chargers at this time last year),
which are capable of charging the LEAF with 60 miles range in under half an
hour. To put that into perspective, the AC Level 2 chargers many electric car
owners install in their homes charge at between 10 and 20 miles each hour.
Other organizations, such as CHAdeMO, will also expand their DC charger
infrastructure in North America.
Inductive, or wireless, charging will also
become more of a reality, whether it’s in the form of man
hole-covers doubling up as charge points for parked electric
cars or entire wireless infrastructure likes the one used by certain buses in South Korea.
Will electric cars be less boring in 2014?
Yes. Here’s one reason to start with, and here’s another. Moreover, with the rise of
Tesla and the likely success of BMW i, car companies are realizing that their
electric cars have to exciting. As a result we’ve recently seen Nissan reveal
the Le Mans-inspired Blade Glider, since confirmed
for production, and shouldn’t forget just how innovative the carbon fiber BMW i3 is, either.
Should I buy an electric car in 2014?
With no significant development in battery
range and little real change in prices, unless you’ve been promoted the answer
is unlikely to differ from last year. There will, however, be an unprecedented
choice of electric cars in 2014, so start asking yourself whether you have a
driveway or garage to charge in and whether you’re daily commute is less than
60 miles. If the answer to both is yes, all we can say is that very few EV
owners regret their decision.
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